Инфляцийн тооцоолол

Инфляцийн тооцоолол

 
Инфляци бол өртгийн чанарыг бууруулах үнийн ерөнхий түвшин дэхь байнгыг өсөлт гэж тодорхойлогддог.Энэ хэсэгт бид инфляцийн хэмжээслэлийн талаар авч үзэх болно.
UK consumer prices
1930 оноос хойшх хэрэглэгчийн үнийн индекс – 1970s болон 1980s онуудын хооронд үүссэн өндөр инфляцийн нөлөөг ажилана уу.
Хэрэглэгчийн үнийн индекс(CPI) нь  бараа үйлчилгээний үнэний сар бүрийн өөрчлөлтийг хэмждэг үнийн индекс юм.  Өндөр орлоготой өрх гэр болон тэтгэвэр тэтгэмжээс хамааралтай өрх гэрүүдийн зардал нь The expenditure of some of the higher income households, and of pensioner households mainly dependent on state pensions, is excluded. As spending patterns change over time, the weightings used in calculating the CPI are altered. The consumer price index is now used as the main official measure of inflation in the UK. It is a weighted price index. The current weights used in the calculation of the price level are summarised in the table below:

Weights used in the consumer price index

Food & Non-Alcoholic Drinks
Alcohol and Tobacco
Clothing & Footwear
Housing, water & fuels
Household furnishings
Health
Transport
1988
184
67
84
134
76
5
159
2004
106
46
62
103
75
22
151

Transport
Communication
Recreation & Culture
Education
Hotels, Cafes
Miscellaneous goods & services

1988
159
20
94
9
118
50

2004
151
26
150
16
137
106


The changes in these weights reflect significant shifts in spending patterns of households in the British economy. The weighting attached to food and non alcoholic drinks has declined from 184/1000 in 1988 to just 106/1000 this year. In contrast families are spending proportionately more of their budgets on recreation and cultural activities, hotels and cafés!
Calculating a weighted price index
The following hypothetical example shows how to calculate a weighted price index for a number of categories of consumer spending.
Category
Price Index
Weighting
Price x Weight
Food
104
19
1976
Alcohol & Tobacco
110
5
550
Clothing
96
12
1152
Transport
108
14
1512
Housing
106
23
2438
Leisure Services
102
9
918
Household Goods
95
10
950
Other Items
114
8
912


100
10408
Weights are attached to each category and then we multiply these weights to the price index for each item of spending for a given year.
  • The price index for this year is: the sum of (price x weight) / sum of the weights
  • So the price index for this year is 104.1 (rounding to one decimal place)
The rate of inflation is the % change in the price index from one year to another. So if in one year the price index is 104.1 and a year later the price index has risen to 112.5, then the annual rate of inflation = (112.5 – 104.1) divided by 104.1 x 100. Thus the rate of inflation = 8.07%.

weights in the UK consumer price index
The inflation target for the UK
The inflation target for the UK economy is consumer price inflation of 2.0%. This inflation target is set each year by the Chancellor and it is the task of the Bank of England (BoE) to meet this target. There is a permitted band of fluctuation of +/- 1%. The inflation target was changed in December 2003. Between May 1997 and December 2003 the inflation target was for CPIX (retail price inflation excluding mortgage interest rates) and the target was 2.5%.

consumer price inflation for the UK
The progress of the UK economy in keeping to the 2% inflation target since the millennium
Limitations of the Consumer Price Index as a measure of inflation
The retail price index is a thorough indicator of consumer price inflation for the British economy but there are some weaknesses in its usefulness for some groups of people.
  • The CPI is not fully representative: Since the CPI represents the expenditure of the ‘average’ household, it may be inaccurate for the ‘non-typical’ household. 14% of the index is devoted to motoring expenses - inapplicable for non-car owners. Single people have different spending patterns from households that include children, young from old, male from female, rich from poor and minority groups. We all have our own ‘weighting’ for goods and services that does not coincide with that assigned for the retail price index.
  • Housing costs: The ‘housing’ category of the CPI records changes in the costs of rents, mortgage interest, property and insurance, repairs. It accounts for around 16% of the index. Housing costs vary greatly from person to person, from the young house buyer, mortgaged to the hilt, to the older householder who may have paid off his or her mortgage.
  • Changing quality of goods and services: Although the price of a good or service may rise, this may be accompanied by an improvement in quality as the good. It is hard to make price comparisons of, for example, electrical goods over the last 20 years because new audio-visual equipment is so different from its predecessors. In this respect, the CPI may over-estimate inflation. The CPI is slow to respond to the emergence of new products and services.

Leave a Reply